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Playoff Divisions - week 8

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AuldSchool

Playoff Divisions - week 8

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10/16/11 7:33 PM

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Provided there are no changes by the MHSAA tomorrow there are 185 teams who have 2 or less losses.

At the moment it seems like there is a subtle retreat from the play-offs, rather than a march to them. Last year 187. Most undefeated teams in Class C with 18.

Need 71, and after looking at the Formula, and the fact that there are 55 A teams that 'playing to make the play-offs' we're going with a 23-20-18-10 split. This still gives us a slight upward movement as class A has not really taken charge.

Please wait for all 8. I do plan on making a "Favorites Win" projection later this week, depending when I get all the cross-over schedules.

While assembling the next installment — FW — I found that five teams averages had changed. Adrian, DH Robichaud, Det CC, River Rouge, Warren DeLaSalle, so changes have been made to their averages, no team changes.

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/18/11 3:39 AM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

Division 1

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10/16/11 7:35 PM

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EnrRank	Division I	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
1	Utica Eisenhower	2825	7	1	95.875	A
3	Clarkston	2751	5	3	69.250	A
6	Rockford	2587	7	1	101.179	A
7	Grand Blanc	2563	6	2	90.750	A
8	Lake Orion	2516	6	2	81.500	A
9	Macomb Dakota	2507	5	3	70.875	A
11	Dearborn Fordson	2377	5	3	67.125	A
12	Holland West Ottawa	2260	6	2	72.804	A
14	Northville	2229	7	1	88.875	A
15	Monroe	2196	6	2	76.250	A
16	Canton	2127	6	2	83.375	A
17	Brighton	2118	7	1	92.625	A
18	Detroit Cass Tech	2114	5	3	67.375	A
19	Utica Ford	2098	5	3	61.625	A
20	Plymouth	2088	8	0	108.000	A
23	Detroit Catholic Central	2046	7	1	89.750	A
26	Livonia Churchill	1932	5	3	68.875	A
27	Holt	1930	5	3	65.661	A
28	Troy Athens	1922	6	2	82.125	A
32	Warren Mott	1886	5	3	69.000	A
33	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1865	6	2	82.000	A
37	Grand Haven	1836	7	1	93.179	A
39	Romeo	1828	6	2	79.250	A
40	Walled Lake Central	1823	5	3	65.125	A
44	Warren Cousino	1792	6	2	76.500	A
48	Dearborn	1753	6	2	80.833	A
50	Pontiac	1721	5	3	65.750	A
58	Temperance Bedford	1656	6	2	83.250	A
60	Grand Ledge	1650	6	2	75.875	A
62	Flint Carman-Ainsworth	1641	5	3	63.625	A
64	Walled Lake Northern	1622	5	3	61.750	A
65	Midland	1598	7	1	88.875	A

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/18/11 3:32 AM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

Division 2

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Posts: 1757

10/16/11 7:36 PM

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EnrRank	Division II	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
67	Warren DeLaSalle	1594	6	2	86.500	A
68	Grosse Pointe South	1593	6	2	76.375	A
71	Rochester Adams	1560	5	3	70.000	A
73	Milford	1553	5	3	60.875	A
74	Ypsilanti Lincoln	1530	6	2	70.125	A
75	Southgate Anderson	1519	6	2	75.875	A
76	Walled Lake Western	1515	7	1	92.625	A
77	Port Huron	1493	8	0	110.000	A
79	Oxford	1482	6	2	85.375	A
92	Garden City	1412	6	2	72.375	A
93	North Farmington	1411	6	2	76.125	A
98	Farmington	1384	5	3	65.500	A
100	Okemos	1371	6	2	80.125	A
101	Detroit Martin Luther King	1370	6	2	77.875	A
104	Southfield	1364	5	3	67.125	A
105	Detroit Henry Ford	1362	7	1	92.500	A
113	Birmingham Groves	1335	5	3	66.125	A
116	Birmingham Seaholm	1297	6	2	74.875	A
119	Wyandotte Roosevelt	1289	8	0	104.000	A
122	Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central	1280	5	3	66.500	A
124	Muskegon	1273	6	2	82.357	A
125	Farmington Hills Harrison	1261	8	0	113.000	A
128	South Lyon	1230	6	2	76.125	A
129	Lowell	1227	7	1	101.875	A
131	Bay City Western	1224	6	2	72.625	A
134	Fenton	1212	6	2	78.125	A
138	Allen Park	1194	6	2	81.375	A
139	Ortonville-Brandon	1190	5	3	64.625	A
140	Holly	1173	6	2	80.000	A
146	Mattawan	1147	7	1	86.625	A
147	Marquette	1131	7	1	77.625	A
148	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	1130	5	3	64.125	A

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/18/11 3:33 AM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

Division 3

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Posts: 1758

10/16/11 7:37 PM

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EnrRank	Division III	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
151	East Lansing	1103	6	2	79.000	A
152	Gibraltar Carlson	1103	5	3	61.875	A
153	Holland	1100	6	2	76.000	A
158	Redford Thurston	1080	7	1	92.625	A
159	Lapeer West	1077	5	3	69.750	A
161	Zeeland East	1070	7	1	78.875	A
164	Mt Pleasant	1063	8	0	103.000	A
165	St Johns	1060	6	2	68.500	A
168	Lapeer East	1053	6	2	81.125	A
174	Detroit Pershing	1007	6	2	72.500	A
177	Bloomfield Hills Lahser	981	5	3	70.250	A
179	Mason	974	7	1	84.054	A
180	Petoskey	972	8	0	95.571	A
186	DeWitt	958	7	1	85.750	A
189	Grand Rapids Christian	951	8	0	110.000	B
191	St Joseph	948	6	2	75.375	B
192	East Grand Rapids	944	6	2	76.375	B
193	Stevensville Lakeshore	941	6	2	83.625	B
194	Adrian	940	5	3	61.000	B
195	Fruitport	939	7	1	76.625	B
197	Riverview	928	7	1	79.750	B
199	Sturgis	924	6	2	78.875	B
200	Carleton Airport	920	7	1	81.625	B
209	Orchard Lake St Mary's	904	7	1	95.196	B
215	Chelsea	890	7	1	89.625	B
216	Linden	890	5	3	66.875	B
217	Bay City John Glenn	889	6	2	65.482	B
220	Battle Creek Harper Creek	883	8	0	100.000	B
222	Cadillac	865	4	3	55.304	B
223	Hastings	864	6	2	70.000	B
226	Escanaba	855	6	2	68.450	B
227	Sparta	850	6	2	76.250	B

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/18/11 3:33 AM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

Division 4

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10/16/11 7:41 PM

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EnrRank	Division IV	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
228	Detroit Southwestern	842	5	3	56.000	B
233	Plainwell	833	6	2	64.625	B
237	Marysville	811	7	1	82.875	B
238	Spring Lake	807	6	2	67.000	B
239	Vicksburg	807	5	3	58.125	B
247	Edwardsburg	784	7	0	87.714	B
250	Lansing Sexton	770	5	3	69.750	B
251	Detroit Kettering	769	5	3	58.750	B
253	Croswell-Lexington	755	8	0	93.429	B
255	Zeeland West	741	8	0	93.000	B
257	Goodrich	731	5	3	52.250	B
259	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	723	7	1	83.625	B
261	Hudsonville Unity Christian	717	5	3	56.125	B
262	Marine City	715	8	0	103.000	B
263	Fremont	714	5	3	53.875	B
264	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	712	6	2	76.375	B
266	Otsego	711	6	2	64.625	B
267	St Clair Shores South Lake	711	8	0	87.000	B
268	Comstock Park	706	6	2	64.875	B
269	Detroit Country Day	698	6	2	67.667	B
270	Detroit Crockett	696	7	1	94.625	B
274	Grand Rapids South Christian	685	5	3	61.250	B
277	Battle Creek Pennfield	676	8	0	81.000	B
278	Paw Paw	675	8	0	91.000	B
279	Grosse Ile	674	6	2	64.500	B
281	Ludington	672	5	3	52.875	B
282	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	671	8	0	91.429	B
287	Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy	648	7	1	76.875	B
288	Whitehall	643	5	3	53.125	B
289	Detroit Douglass	642	7	1	88.750	B
293	Alma	624	6	2	67.375	B
302	Remus Chippewa Hills	595	5	3	49.500	B

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/18/11 3:34 AM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

Division 5

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Posts: 1760

10/16/11 7:41 PM

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EnrRank	Division V	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
305	Portland	591	7	1	85.304	B
308	Clawson	588	6	2	55.750	B
310	Berrien Springs	584	7	1	73.429	B
312	Menominee	584	6	2	72.861	B
314	Dowagiac	582	7	1	78.500	B
316	Wyoming Kelloggsville	577	5	3	51.679	B
317	Freeland	576	7	1	82.625	B
319	Ovid-Elsie	570	6	2	70.500	B
324	Almont	563	7	1	76.875	B
326	Hopkins	554	5	3	53.107	B
327	Grayling	553	8	0	72.000	B
328	Flint Powers Catholic	537	4	4	54.482	B
329	Grand Rapids West Catholic	537	6	2	81.500	B
330	Benzie Central	536	7	1	67.125	B
332	Lake Fenton	535	5	3	53.125	B
335	Capac	531	6	2	61.768	B
344	Frankenmuth	517	6	2	63.500	B
345	Manistee	511	5	3	56.000	B
347	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	506	7	1	81.246	B
349	Carrollton	500	7	1	65.875	B
354	Olivet	494	6	2	57.375	B
355	Dundee	493	7	1	65.875	B
357	Millington	492	8	0	91.000	B
364	Jackson Lumen Christi	477	5	3	56.875	B
365	Lansing Catholic	477	8	0	94.829	B
366	Reed City	475	8	0	85.000	B
370	Hemlock	471	6	2	71.250	B
372	Muskegon Oakridge	466	7	1	75.929	B
375	Mt Clemens	460	4	4	37.000	C
376	River Rouge	459	6	2	54.500	C
378	Vassar	451	7	1	58.750	C
380	Tawas Area	448	7	1	54.518	C

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/18/11 3:35 AM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

Division 6

#6

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Posts: 1761

10/16/11 7:42 PM

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EnrRank	Division VI	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
382	Negaunee	444	5	3	41.321	C
383	Madison Heights Madison	443	6	2	69.750	C
386	Montrose Hill-McCloy	434	8	0	86.000	C
388	Leslie	432	7	1	72.625	C
390	Detroit PEC	430	5	3	51.000	C
391	Clare	428	7	1	68.750	C
393	Hanover-Horton	425	5	3	43.750	C
395	Morley Stanwood	423	7	1	66.875	C
397	Laingsburg	422	5	3	40.000	C
398	Ithaca	420	8	0	82.429	C
402	Hillsdale	417	6	2	60.375	C
404	Shelby	417	7	1	72.750	C
407	Ecorse	407	7	1	68.625	C
409	Montague	407	6	2	60.500	C
411	Sanford Meridian	404	6	2	54.125	C
414	Constantine	400	6	2	53.500	C
418	Grass Lake	395	8	0	80.000	C
420	Manchester	394	7	1	64.875	C
426	Calumet	386	6	2	57.798	C
427	Clinton	383	4	4	37.250	C
428	Byron Area	382	7	1	58.750	C
430	Iron Mountain	381	7	0	79.857	C
431	Warren Michigan Collegiate	381	8	0	87.000	C
432	Hartford	380	6	2	46.250	C
433	Cassopolis Ross Beatty	377	5	3	45.804	C
434	Grandville Calvin Christian	377	7	1	68.500	C
435	Flint Beecher	375	5	3	54.500	C
438	Schoolcraft	368	6	2	53.500	C
440	St Charles	366	5	3	47.000	C
443	Marlette	362	6	2	58.375	C
445	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	360	5	3	39.500	C
448	McBain	357	7	1	75.750	C

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AuldSchool

Division 7

#7

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Posts: 1762

10/16/11 7:43 PM

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EnrRank	Division VII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
450	Watervliet	354	7	1	56.875	C
452	Sandusky	353	5	3	48.125	C
453	Saranac	353	7	1	58.875	C
455	Ishpeming Westwood	351	5	2	42.857	C
456	Reese	351	7	1	64.875	C
457	Burton Bendle	350	7	1	61.875	C
466	Saginaw Nouvel	339	7	0	95.448	C
467	Lake City	336	7	1	60.750	C
468	Whittemore-Prescott	335	7	1	62.018	C
470	Union City	333	8	0	72.000	C
476	Pewamo-Westphalia	319	8	0	70.000	C
477	Springport	318	6	2	46.625	C
478	Ishpeming	316	6	1	63.429	C
479	Lawton	316	6	2	51.500	C
481	Detroit Loyola	312	8	0	82.571	C
482	Mancelona	312	8	0	67.000	C
487	Reading	302	7	1	58.875	C
488	Brown City	301	5	3	38.000	C
492	Ravenna	296	5	3	51.875	C
494	Sand Creek	295	7	1	63.750	C
495	Traverse City St Francis	294	7	1	63.857	C
503	Gobles	282	7	1	51.875	C
505	Hudson	279	8	0	87.000	C
506	Iron River West Iron County	278	7	1	67.190	C
509	Decatur	275	6	2	54.500	C
511	Royal Oak Shrine Catholic	273	8	0	79.400	C
512	Waterford Our Lady	272	4	4	43.804	C
516	Coleman	267	6	2	49.250	C
517	Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett	267	8	0	60.143	C
518	Britton Deerfield	263	5	3	44.518	C
520	Blanchard Montabella	262	7	1	59.500	C
522	Harbor Beach	260	8	0	77.000	C

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AuldSchool

Division 8

#8

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Posts: 1763

10/16/11 7:44 PM

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EnrRank	Division VIII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
527	Melvindale Academy for Business & Tech	251	5	3	49.482	C
528	Ubly	251	6	2	56.500	C
529	Saugatuck	250	8	0	70.000	C
530	Petersburg-Summerfield	249	5	3	46.500	C
537	Mendon	242	8	0	79.000	C
538	New Lothrop	242	8	0	71.000	C
544	St Ignace La Salle	230	8	0	67.000	C
546	Stephenson	226	6	2	48.492	C
547	Johannesburg-Lewiston	219	7	1	55.875	C
550	Beal City	216	5	3	45.250	C
551	Pickford	215	5	3	38.911	Class D
552	Pittsford	215	7	1	50.607	Class D
553	Bellevue	213	6	2	39.500	Class D
557	Mio	208	6	2	47.500	Class D
562	Deckerville	199	5	3	37.125	Class D
563	Morenci	199	5	3	43.125	Class D
565	Climax-Scotts	198	7	1	57.339	Class D
567	Munising	197	5	3	39.214	Class D
568	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	197	5	3	45.125	Class D
571	Fowler	188	6	2	47.625	Class D
572	Kingston	188	6	2	34.875	Class D
573	Lutheran Westland	188	5	3	42.393	Class D
575	Muskegon Catholic Central	184	7	1	81.929	Class D
578	St Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	177	6	2	37.536	Class D
580	Crystal Falls Forest Park	174	6	1	49.746	Class D
584	Ontonagon	166	4	4	36.692	Class D
590	Hillman	156	7	1	52.768	Class D
591	Lake Linden-Hubbell	154	5	3	36.978	Class D
593	Frankfort	152	6	2	55.250	Class D
598	Iron Mountain North Dickinson	127	6	1	54.873	Class D
599	Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart	127	5	3	50.125	Class D
606	Detroit Westside Christian	69	4	4	39.107	Class D

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trezdustrial

#9

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Posts: 2228

10/16/11 8:17 PM

West Coast Mod

Why no mention of Kingsley in D5? They are 5-3 and take on a 2-6 Hart team this week. I see Mt Clemons listed, who is 4-4 and taking on another D5 4-4 team.

In D4 Fremont is listed, who is 5-3 and host 6-2 Montague this week.

Might make the maps more accurate if you remove Fremont from D4 (unless they get in at 5-4). And add in Kingsley to D5.

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Mr NCAA

#10

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Posts: 9170

10/16/11 8:21 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

I can't wait until the real numbers appear for next week.

I just have the Class B and C 4 - 4 teams to do. Then, verify my lists are correct. Then, run NumberCrunch's projections for how many at large teams.

I have 186 automatic qualifiers. The MHSAA had an error in their data base, but found my error real quick. That is why I need to verify that my lists are correct since I have been emailing the MHSAA corrrections as well.

Based on your 55 Class A comment either I missed a team or the MHSAA did another correction such as what they did for MPSH earlier in the day. I forgot about Hudsonville on my 3 - 4 list, but they appear to be a long shot to get in at 4 - 4.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 10/16/11 8:33 PM. Edited 4 times.

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AuldSchool

#11

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10/16/11 8:41 PM

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trezdustrial wrote:
Why no mention of Kingsley in D5? They are 5-3 and take on a 2-6 Hart team this week. I see Mt Clemons listed, who is 4-4 and taking on another D5 4-4 team.

In D4 Fremont is listed, who is 5-3 and host 6-2 Montague this week.

Might make the maps more accurate if you remove Fremont from D4 (unless they get in at 5-4). And add in Kingsley to D5.

Will do a projected 'Favorites Wins' where that comes in. This take is based on current POP averages. I think all those will probably happen in that projection.

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Mr NCAA

#12

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10/16/11 9:48 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

Based on NumberCrunch's formula I have 52.514 5 -3 teams winning this week. So I guess that I will make it 53 for rounding purposes. Added to 185 automatic qualifiers plus one 4 - 3 qualifier since they play each other to bring it up to 239 teams automatically qualifying for the playoffs. That would make it 17 at large teams as follows:

Class A 5
Class B 4
Class C 4
Class D 4

This is provided that my 5 - 3 and 4 - 3 lists are correct, which I will try to verify either later tonight or perhaps tomorrow as I am taking another break.

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AuldSchool

#13

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10/16/11 10:17 PM

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Looks in the ballpark. I actually have seen a higher number come up somewhere while I was doing this, but anything over 15 is what I was expecting.

The Favorites Win — coming later this week — is where I start looking at match-ups such as the 2 (4-3) teams knocking heads. The schedule seems to be most important this week. How many 5-3 teams play each other, how many 5-3's play 0-8, etc.

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/17/11 12:03 AM. Edited 1 time.

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Mr NCAA

#14

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10/16/11 10:59 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

I did my at large projections straight by NumberCrunch's formula instead of counting the individual matchups since that seems to work most if not all the time.

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ChuckSlick

#15

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Sophomore

Posts: 45

10/17/11 1:12 AM

Who goes to Div7

Melvindale AB&T and Ubly both have enrollments of 251 and both are right on the cusp of Div7 & Div8. I can't find anywhere on the state forum that states who goes Div7 or drops to Div8. The second tie-breaker is opponents winning pct. which Ubly leads by an unsurmountable to 54.7% to 44.4%. which only tells me Ubly would have home field if the two teams met. What is the rule for division break?

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SnoozeToMe

#16

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Posts: 739

10/17/11 1:22 AM

Playoff Maps and Brackets

ChuckSlick wrote:
Who goes to Div7

Melvindale AB&T and Ubly both have enrollments of 251 and both are right on the cusp of Div7 & Div8. I can't find anywhere on the state forum that states who goes Div7 or drops to Div8. The second tie-breaker is opponents winning pct. which Ubly leads by an unsurmountable to 54.7% to 44.4%. which only tells me Ubly would have home field if the two teams met. What is the rule for division break?

From MHSAA's Playoff Regulations Document:

"If there is a tie for the final position in any division, the team with the higher playoff point average will be placed in the higher division. If both teams have the same playoff point av-erage, the tie will be broken with a coin toss by MHSAA staff."

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ChuckSlick

#17

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Posts: 46

10/17/11 1:43 AM

Thanks Snooze!

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Mr NCAA

#18

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Posts: 9185

10/17/11 2:34 AM

MHSAA Football Stats

I gave the MHSAA another impartial tiebreaker #3 to use for next year, but wouldn't have solved last years tie anyways since both teams came from 10 team conferences.

Your tiebreaker came up last year with Mendon and Saugatuck with Mendon having the terrible task of having to face the Tigers.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 10/17/11 2:45 AM. Edited 1 time.

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ChuckSlick

#19

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Sophomore

Posts: 47

10/17/11 2:41 AM

I couldn't sleep and the more I thought about this rule, the more I thought it is a BAD rule. It benefits the weaker team by forcing the better team to play in a stronger division. This could make the coach at the higher rated team to purposely throw their final game to drop to the lower division.

I much like Ubly's chances in Div8, about 20-1 to their chances in Div7 at about 200-1.

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AuldSchool

#20

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10/17/11 3:42 AM

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Don't like the rule either. Seems entirely backwards… Maybe it would make more sense to let the school with the highest POP to make the call. Division only, before any districts or games are set up. Most times I'd expect they'd take their reward for having the better record and play down. If you think you might end up in a district with Mendon or MCC maybe you'd choose up. If you think it'd be Hudson, you might choose to play down.

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Playoff Divisions - week 8

Playoff Divisions - week 8