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AuldSchool

Playoff Divisions - week 7

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10/09/11 10:18 PM

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Had a request from the Geography Dept to run these out tonight to free up time for the Detroit Sports Doubleheader — Tigers vs Ranger, then Lions vs Bears.

It appears there are still some small errors in play-off average. No result yet posted for RO Shrine vs Waterford Our Lady. And on Shrine's team page Our Lady is listed at 3-3. Everywhere else they are listed as 4-2. We think they are now 4-3. Maybe some others but probably won't change much.

Our qualifiers — 220 — are all teams with 2 or less losses. Used a 11-10-10-5 split. Depending on how things are rounded for the Formula maybe I should have taken one off A and given it to B or C…

Wow, that took some effort. Most had to be resent. If 18 divisions show up tomorrow, you'll know why. Don't know what the people at Yuku are doing, but they should all be up.

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/10/11 12:09 AM. Edited 2 times.

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AuldSchool

Division 1

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10/09/11 10:23 PM

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EnrRank	Division I	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
1	Utica Eisenhower	2825	6	1	92.286	A
3	Clarkston	2751	5	2	74.857	A
6	Rockford	2587	6	1	96.714	A
7	Grand Blanc	2563	5	2	79.571	A
8	Lake Orion	2516	6	1	88.571	A
9	Macomb Dakota	2507	5	2	78.000	A
11	Dearborn Fordson	2377	5	2	73.429	A
12	Holland West Ottawa	2260	5	2	64.857	A
14	Northville	2229	7	0	97.143	A
15	Monroe	2196	6	1	82.857	A
16	Canton	2127	5	2	76.857	A
17	Brighton	2118	6	1	85.143	A
18	Detroit Cass Tech	2114	5	2	71.286	A
19	Utica Ford	2098	5	2	66.143	A
20	Plymouth	2088	7	0	99.429	A
23	Detroit Catholic Central	2046	7	0	97.143	A
26	Livonia Churchill	1932	5	2	74.286	A
27	Holt	1930	4	3	59.905	A
28	Troy Athens	1922	5	2	73.286	A
32	Warren Mott	1886	4	3	60.143	A
33	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1865	5	2	78.714	A
37	Grand Haven	1836	6	1	84.714	A
39	Romeo	1828	5	2	75.571	A
40	Walled Lake Central	1823	5	2	71.143	A
44	Warren Cousino	1792	5	2	67.714	A
48	Dearborn	1753	5	2	75.232	A
58	Temperance Bedford	1656	5	2	73.143	A
60	Grand Ledge	1650	6	1	83.714	A
62	Flint Carman-Ainsworth	1641	4	3	56.286	A
65	Midland	1598	6	1	79.714	A
67	Warren DeLaSalle	1594	5	2	79.286	A
68	Grosse Pointe South	1593	5	2	71.143	A

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AuldSchool

Division 2

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10/09/11 10:29 PM

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EnrRank	Division II	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
71	Rochester Adams	1560	4	3	62.571	A
73	Milford	1553	5	2	66.429	A
74	Ypsilanti Lincoln	1530	5	2	66.143	A
75	Southgate Anderson	1519	5	2	72.857	A
76	Walled Lake Western	1515	7	0	101.714	A
77	Port Huron	1493	7	0	105.143	A
79	Oxford	1482	5	2	78.000	A
92	Garden City	1412	5	2	65.429	A
93	North Farmington	1411	5	2	73.143	A
98	Farmington	1384	5	2	70.714	A
100	Okemos	1371	5	2	75.429	A
101	Detroit Martin Luther King	1370	5	2	69.571	A
103	Birmingham Brother Rice	1366	4	3	65.000	A
104	Southfield	1364	5	2	73.429	A
105	Detroit Henry Ford	1362	6	1	87.286	A
113	Birmingham Groves	1335	5	2	72.714	A
116	Birmingham Seaholm	1297	5	2	70.571	A
119	Wyandotte Roosevelt	1289	7	0	97.143	A
122	Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central	1280	4	3	56.143	A
124	Muskegon	1273	6	1	89.667	A
125	Farmington Hills Harrison	1261	7	0	106.286	A
127	Swartz Creek	1244	4	3	56.286	A
128	South Lyon	1230	5	2	68.571	A
129	Lowell	1227	6	1	96.857	A
131	Bay City Western	1224	6	1	79.714	A
134	Fenton	1212	5	2	72.000	A
138	Allen Park	1194	6	1	88.429	A
139	Ortonville-Brandon	1190	5	2	71.857	A
140	Holly	1173	5	2	71.857	A
146	Mattawan	1147	6	1	79.429	A
147	Marquette	1131	6	1	72.571	A
148	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	1130	5	2	69.000	A

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AuldSchool

Division 3

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10/09/11 10:30 PM

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EnrRank	Division III	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
151	East Lansing	1103	5	2	69.429	A
153	Holland	1100	5	2	71.857	A
155	St Clair Shores Lake Shore	1095	4	3	58.571	A
156	Auburn Hills Avondale	1093	4	3	57.429	A
158	Redford Thurston	1080	6	1	85.143	A
159	Lapeer West	1077	4	3	66.714	A
161	Zeeland East	1070	6	1	70.571	A
164	Mt Pleasant	1063	7	0	102.857	A
165	St Johns	1060	6	1	71.714	A
168	Lapeer East	1053	5	2	74.143	A
174	Detroit Pershing	1007	5	2	67.714	A
176	Cedar Springs	983	5	2	62.571	A
177	Bloomfield Hills Lahser	981	4	3	62.857	A
179	Mason	974	6	1	75.238	A
180	Petoskey	972	7	0	93.714	A
186	DeWitt	958	7	0	92.571	A
189	Grand Rapids Christian	951	7	0	112.000	B
191	St Joseph	948	5	2	67.714	B
192	East Grand Rapids	944	5	2	68.714	B
193	Stevensville Lakeshore	941	6	1	90.000	B
194	Adrian	940	4	3	55.571	B
195	Fruitport	939	6	1	73.714	B
197	Riverview	928	6	1	71.571	B
199	Sturgis	924	5	2	74.000	B
200	Carleton Airport	920	6	1	77.143	B
209	Orchard Lake St Mary's	904	6	1	85.857	B
215	Chelsea	890	6	1	85.143	B
216	Linden	890	4	3	57.714	B
217	Bay City John Glenn	889	5	2	60.167	B
220	Battle Creek Harper Creek	883	7	0	99.429	B
222	Cadillac	865	4	3	55.429	B
223	Hastings	864	5	2	67.286	B

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AuldSchool

Division 4

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10/09/11 10:35 PM

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EnrRank	Division IV	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
226	Escanaba	855	5	2	65.524	B
227	Sparta	850	6	1	81.714	B
228	Detroit Southwestern	842	5	2	60.714	B
233	Plainwell	833	5	2	57.571	B
237	Marysville	811	6	1	78.571	B
238	Spring Lake	807	5	2	60.571	B
239	Vicksburg	807	4	3	53.571	B
247	Edwardsburg	784	6	0	79.429	B
250	Lansing Sexton	770	4	3	61.286	B
251	Detroit Kettering	769	5	2	65.000	B
253	Croswell-Lexington	755	7	0	88.381	B
255	Zeeland West	741	7	0	88.000	B
257	Goodrich	731	5	2	57.286	B
259	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	723	6	1	77.143	B
261	Hudsonville Unity Christian	717	4	3	53.571	B
262	Marine City	715	7	0	97.143	B
263	Fremont	714	5	2	58.571	B
264	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	712	6	1	80.714	B
266	Otsego	711	6	1	70.571	B
267	St Clair Shores South Lake	711	7	0	88.000	B
268	Comstock Park	706	5	2	54.571	B
269	Detroit Country Day	698	5	2	62.286	B
270	Detroit Crockett	696	6	1	87.429	B
274	Grand Rapids South Christian	685	5	2	66.571	B
275	Cheboygan	683	4	3	48.571	B
277	Battle Creek Pennfield	676	7	0	78.857	B
278	Paw Paw	675	7	0	88.000	B
279	Grosse Ile	674	6	1	70.429	B
282	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	671	7	0	92.952	B
287	Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy	648	7	0	82.286	B
288	Whitehall	643	5	2	57.286	B
289	Detroit Douglass	642	6	1	83.000	B

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AuldSchool

Division 5

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Posts: 1703

10/09/11 10:43 PM

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EnrRank	Division V	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
293	Alma	624	6	1	73.714	B
305	Portland	591	6	1	75.714	B
308	Clawson	588	5	2	50.857	B
310	Berrien Springs	584	7	0	77.143	B
312	Menominee	584	5	2	65.321	B
313	Standish-Sterling Central	584	4	3	49.429	B
314	Dowagiac	582	6	1	71.286	B
317	Freeland	576	6	1	74.857	B
319	Ovid-Elsie	570	5	2	64.286	B
324	Almont	563	6	1	71.714	B
327	Grayling	553	7	0	68.571	B
329	Grand Rapids West Catholic	537	5	2	73.571	B
330	Benzie Central	536	6	1	63.000	B
332	Lake Fenton	535	5	2	56.143	B
335	Capac	531	5	2	56.619	B
338	Stanton Central Montcalm	530	5	2	50.429	B
344	Frankenmuth	517	5	2	56.286	B
345	Manistee	511	4	3	52.286	B
347	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	506	6	1	77.238	B
349	Carrollton	500	7	0	69.714	B
354	Olivet	494	5	2	49.286	B
355	Dundee	493	6	1	61.429	B
357	Millington	492	7	0	84.571	B
364	Jackson Lumen Christi	477	4	3	48.714	B
365	Lansing Catholic	477	7	0	86.286	B
366	Reed City	475	7	0	86.857	B
370	Hemlock	471	5	2	66.429	B
372	Muskegon Oakridge	466	6	1	67.238	B
376	River Rouge	459	6	1	58.048	C
378	Vassar	451	6	1	56.714	C
380	Tawas Area	448	6	1	48.619	C
382	Negaunee	444	5	2	45.000	C

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/09/11 11:59 PM. Edited 2 times.

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AuldSchool

Division 6

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Posts: 1704

10/09/11 10:55 PM

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EnrRank	Division VI	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
383	Madison Heights Madison	443	5	2	61.143	C
386	Montrose Hill-McCloy	434	7	0	80.000	C
388	Leslie	432	6	1	70.286	C
390	Detroit PEC	430	4	3	44.429	C
391	Clare	428	6	1	67.000	C
393	Hanover-Horton	425	5	2	47.571	C
395	Morley Stanwood	423	6	1	61.429	C
397	Laingsburg	422	5	2	43.429	C
398	Ithaca	420	7	0	73.714	C
402	Hillsdale	417	5	2	58.429	C
404	Shelby	417	6	1	68.143	C
407	Ecorse	407	6	1	62.286	C
409	Montague	407	5	2	57.429	C
411	Sanford Meridian	404	5	2	49.143	C
414	Constantine	400	5	2	48.286	C
418	Grass Lake	395	7	0	74.286	C
420	Manchester	394	6	1	61.429	C
426	Calumet	386	5	2	52.143	C
427	Clinton	383	4	3	40.429	C
428	Byron Area	382	7	0	62.857	C
430	Iron Mountain	381	7	0	79.619	C
431	Warren Michigan Collegiate	381	7	0	78.857	C
432	Hartford	380	5	2	45.857	C
433	Cassopolis Ross Beatty	377	4	3	40.881	C
434	Grandville Calvin Christian	377	6	1	64.429	C
435	Flint Beecher	375	4	3	51.857	C
438	Schoolcraft	368	6	1	58.000	C
440	St Charles	366	4	3	42.143	C
443	Marlette	362	6	1	62.571	C
445	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	360	5	2	41.714	C
448	McBain	357	6	1	71.714	C
450	Watervliet	354	6	1	50.000	C

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AuldSchool

Division 7

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10/09/11 11:03 PM

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EnrRank	Division VII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
452	Sandusky	353	4	3	41.000	C
453	Saranac	353	6	1	51.143	C
455	Ishpeming Westwood	351	4	2	38.143	C
456	Reese	351	6	1	66.000	C
457	Burton Bendle	350	6	1	53.429	C
466	Saginaw Nouvel	339	6	0	87.752	C
467	Lake City	336	6	1	55.571	C
468	Whittemore-Prescott	335	6	1	60.476	C
470	Union City	333	7	0	69.714	C
476	Pewamo-Westphalia	319	7	0	68.571	C
477	Springport	318	5	2	40.429	C
478	Ishpeming	316	6	1	63.333	C
479	Lawton	316	6	1	54.571	C
481	Detroit Loyola	312	7	0	76.952	C
482	Mancelona	312	7	0	61.714	C
487	Reading	302	6	1	53.429	C
492	Ravenna	296	5	2	54.857	C
494	Sand Creek	295	6	1	56.714	C
495	Traverse City St Francis	294	6	1	62.548	C
500	Lincoln Alcona	287	5	2	38.190	C
503	Gobles	282	7	0	56.000	C
505	Hudson	279	7	0	80.000	C
506	Iron River West Iron County	278	6	1	61.857	C
509	Decatur	275	5	2	48.429	C
511	Royal Oak Shrine Catholic	273	7	0	74.571	C
512	Waterford Our Lady	272	4	3	46.286	C
516	Coleman	267	5	2	45.714	C
517	Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett	267	7	0	53.714	C
518	Britton Deerfield	263	5	2	46.429	C
520	Blanchard Montabella	262	6	1	59.857	C
522	Harbor Beach	260	7	0	75.429	C
527	Ubly	251	5	2	51.857	C

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/10/11 12:36 AM. Edited 2 times.

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AuldSchool

Division 8

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10/09/11 11:05 PM

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EnrRank	Division VIII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
527	Melvindale Academy for Business & Tech	251	4	3	42.548	C
529	Saugatuck	250	7	0	62.857	C
530	Petersburg-Summerfield	249	4	3	39.143	C
537	Mendon	242	7	0	73.143	C
538	New Lothrop	242	7	0	66.286	C
543	New Buffalo	232	5	2	34.381	C
544	St Ignace La Salle	230	7	0	62.857	C
546	Stephenson	226	5	2	42.560	C
547	Johannesburg-Lewiston	219	6	1	51.143	C
550	Beal City	216	4	3	42.143	C
551	Pickford	215	5	2	39.314	Class D
552	Pittsford	215	6	1	49.476	Class D
553	Bellevue	213	5	2	38.000	Class D
557	Mio	208	5	2	44.857	Class D
562	Deckerville	199	5	2	39.286	Class D
563	Morenci	199	4	3	37.429	Class D
565	Climax-Scotts	198	6	1	51.048	Class D
567	Munising	197	5	2	41.524	Class D
568	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	197	4	3	37.571	Class D
571	Fowler	188	5	2	45.000	Class D
572	Kingston	188	5	2	34.000	Class D
573	Lutheran Westland	188	4	3	36.905	Class D
575	Muskegon Catholic Central	184	7	0	86.095	Class D
578	St Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	177	5	2	30.095	Class D
580	Crystal Falls Forest Park	174	5	1	43.732	Class D
583	Colon	166	4	2	31.190	Class D
584	Ontonagon	166	4	3	39.524	Class D
590	Hillman	156	6	1	50.857	Class D
591	Lake Linden-Hubbell	154	5	2	40.161	Class D
593	Frankfort	152	5	2	54.857	Class D
598	Iron Mountain North Dickinson	127	5	1	48.857	Class D
599	Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart	127	4	3	44.429	Class D

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/09/11 11:55 PM. Edited 1 time.

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Mr NCAA

#9

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Posts: 9139

10/09/11 11:19 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

Wow, what a difference a week makes. The new and improved adjusted Average Division Breakpoints was even better than AuldSchool's week 3 - 6 projections for AuldSchool's week 7 projections. I had told Mick McCabe to probably put Ubly in D8, but for him to make his call on those 3 "no man's land" teams. So the projections made it interesting for me this week.

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AuldSchool

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10/09/11 11:41 PM

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I had told Mick McCabe to probably put Ubly in D8, but for him to make his call on those 3 "no man's land" teams. So the projections made it interesting for me this week.

Having problems, fired up another browser. Chrome.

Need to fix div 7 & Div 8 for Ulby & Melvindale ABT. They need to flip as they have same enrollment. So Ulby is d7.

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AuldSchool

#11

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10/09/11 11:42 PM

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Not the browser.

Server error
The website encountered an error while retrieving http://searnfootballforum...c/9305/master/1/?page=1. It may be down for maintenance or configured incorrectly.
Here are some suggestions:
• Reload this webpage later.
HTTP Error 500 (Internal Server Error): An unexpected condition was encountered while the server was attempting to fulfill the request.

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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Mr NCAA

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10/09/11 11:47 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

I guess that I should have taken that into consideration when I made my initial list as well as I would have had Ubly above MABT if I did the MHSAA tiebreakers ahead of time. I will check on my other teams on the breakpoints to see if teams have the same SEN as well and how I would have done it before the season began.

There were some others tied for the breakpoint as well and I would have definitely changed one, but not sure on the other one.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 10/10/11 12:04 AM. Edited 2 times.

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Mr NCAA

#13

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10/10/11 12:13 AM

MHSAA Football Stats

You forgot to change team numbers for Ubly and Melvindale ABT. Ubly is now team #527 based on your standard and Melvindale ABT becomes team #528. However, Breckenridge is tied in the SEN and that would make your adjustment 526 and 527.

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AuldSchool

#14

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10/10/11 12:35 AM

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With as much fun as it has been tonight, that change may be a while in coming.

If this quick reply goes through on the first try, maybe.

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ChuckSlick

#15

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Sophomore

Posts: 38

10/10/11 6:26 AM

I haven't clue on how you project this breakdown! I noticed 8 schools with 4-3 records in Div8...7 in Div3.

Anyhow, I noticed that Arenac Eastern (4-3) isn't on the Div8 list and they should be favorites to win their finally two games.

How exactly do you choose your 4-3 schools? POP or some other criteria?

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ChuckSlick

#16

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Posts: 39

10/10/11 7:04 AM

I figured it out. Makes sense. Good work!

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AuldSchool

#17

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10/10/11 7:16 AM

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ChuckSlick wrote:
I haven't clue on how you project this breakdown! I noticed 8 schools with 4-3 records in Div8...7 in Div3.

Anyhow, I noticed that Arenac Eastern (4-3) isn't on the Div8 list and they should be favorites to win their finally two games.

How exactly do you choose your 4-3 schools? POP or some other criteria?

Took them (4-3) by class, so it is somewhat random into what division they end up in. I do take it by POP, and Arenac Eastern has 31.571 average. As always the size of class D — the number of schools — makes things more difficult. I took 5 D schools, giving them 22 in class D. This is about where probability says they should be at week 9.

Right now there are 9 (4-3)'s in class D. Some will win 2, some 1-1, some 0-2. While it is obvious that 9 will not be 2-0 in last two games, what the exact split will be is hard to tell. What makes it harder is the small 'sample' — like flipping a coin 3 times. If there were 100 teams it would likely be 25 at 2-0, 50 at 1-1, and 25 at 0-2. For shorthand 25-50-25. With 9 it may be 2-5-2 for the pattern. Now being off 1 in the group of 100 hardly changes 26-50-24, in a 9 team group it makes it 3-5-1 really shakes it up.

What I took about the 9 teams is that there should be enough D schools to give us at least 4 eligible at 5-4, as well as 3 teams that get to 6-3.

I'll look at the individual teams in a 'Favorites Win' next week, where I let the computer pick the favorites.

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AuldSchool

#18

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10/10/11 7:18 AM

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That's what I get for writing a dissertation. You figure it out while I'm trying to answer it.

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

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trezdustrial

#19

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Posts: 2214

10/10/11 11:18 AM

West Coast Mod

Not the browser.

Server error
The website encountered an error while retrieving http://searnfootballforum...c/9305/master/1/?page=1. It may be down for maintenance or configured incorrectly.
Here are some suggestions:
• Reload this webpage later.
HTTP Error 500 (Internal Server Error): An unexpected condition was encountered while the server was attempting to fulfill the request.

I'm getting a lot of this too....

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lowmanwins

#20

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Freshmen
Unranked Walkon

Posts: 11

10/10/11 11:40 AM

Auld, how many 5-4's do you see getting in at this point?

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Playoff Divisions - week 7

Playoff Divisions - week 7