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AuldSchool

Playoff Divisions - week 6

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1652

10/03/11 7:51 PM

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Week six is a situation we've seen in the past. We have 269 teams with 2 or fewer losses. As I mentioned elsewhere this does not mean that we will end up with no (5-4) teams. Teams with two losses (120 now) usually have 68% make it to six wins. Right now it looks like 13-14 will be needed at the end of the year.

So… needing only 256 means that there will be an Unlucky 13. If they want in they better win 6.

The Unlucky 13 —most at (4-2)

*** Class A ***
Warren Cousino   - 58.667
St Clair                 - 58.333
Cedar Springs      - 58.167
GR Forest H No. - 57.000
Greenville           - 55.833
Lansing Waverly - 50.333

*** Class B ***
Ida         - 45.000
Buchanan (3-2) - 43.500
Parma Western    - 43.500
Kingsley             - 42.500

*** Class C ***
Ishpemg Westwd- 34.300
Brown City        - 33.333
New Buffalo      - 27.333

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 10/03/11 8:46 PM. Edited 2 times.

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AuldSchool

Division 1

#1

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Posts: 1653

10/03/11 7:52 PM

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EnrRank	Division I	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
1	Utica Eisenhower	2825	5	1	84.833	A
3	Clarkston	2751	4	2	70.000	A
6	Rockford	2587	5	1	96.667	A
7	Grand Blanc	2563	4	2	74.167	A
8	Lake Orion	2516	5	1	80.500	A
9	Macomb Dakota	2507	5	1	86.000	A
11	Dearborn Fordson	2377	4	2	65.500	A
12	Holland West Ottawa	2260	5	1	71.867	A
14	Northville	2229	6	0	93.333	A
15	Monroe	2196	6	0	93.333	A
16	Canton	2127	5	1	85.833	A
17	Brighton	2118	5	1	80.500	A
18	Detroit Cass Tech	2114	4	2	68.167	A
19	Utica Ford	2098	4	2	62.167	A
20	Plymouth	2088	6	0	92.000	A
23	Detroit Catholic Central	2046	6	0	92.000	A
26	Livonia Churchill	1932	4	2	67.667	A
27	Holt	1930	4	2	64.867	A
28	Troy Athens	1922	5	1	81.833	A
32	Warren Mott	1886	4	2	66.667	A
33	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1865	4	2	67.833	A
37	Grand Haven	1836	5	1	79.867	A
39	Romeo	1828	4	2	66.667	A
40	Walled Lake Central	1823	5	1	78.000	A
42	Roseville	1810	4	2	59.667	A
48	Dearborn	1753	4	2	68.786	A
51	Saginaw Heritage	1706	4	2	60.167	A
58	Temperance Bedford	1656	4	2	65.000	A
60	Grand Ledge	1650	6	0	93.333	A
62	Flint Carman-Ainsworth	1641	4	2	62.500	A
65	Midland	1598	5	1	74.167	A
67	Warren DeLaSalle	1594	5	1	88.833	A

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AuldSchool

Division 2

#2

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1654

10/03/11 7:54 PM

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EnrRank	Division II	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
68	Grosse Pointe South	1593	5	1	78.000	A
71	Rochester Adams	1560	4	2	67.833	A
73	Milford	1553	4	2	59.833	A
74	Ypsilanti Lincoln	1530	4	2	59.500	A
75	Southgate Anderson	1519	5	1	80.167	A
76	Walled Lake Western	1515	6	0	94.667	A
77	Port Huron	1493	6	0	98.667	A
79	Oxford	1482	4	2	69.333	A
92	Garden City	1412	5	1	74.000	A
93	North Farmington	1411	4	2	63.833	A
98	Farmington	1384	4	2	65.167	A
100	Okemos	1371	4	2	66.500	A
101	Detroit Martin Luther King	1370	4	2	61.000	A
103	Birmingham Brother Rice	1366	4	2	70.667	A
104	Southfield	1364	5	1	82.167	A
105	Detroit Henry Ford	1362	5	1	84.500	A
113	Birmingham Groves	1335	5	1	81.833	A
116	Birmingham Seaholm	1297	4	2	62.333	A
119	Wyandotte Roosevelt	1289	6	0	90.667	A
124	Muskegon	1273	5	1	83.067	A
125	Farmington Hills Harrison	1261	6	0	101.333	A
127	Swartz Creek	1244	4	2	61.000	A
128	South Lyon	1230	4	2	66.500	A
129	Lowell	1227	5	1	87.500	A
131	Bay City Western	1224	6	0	89.333	A
134	Fenton	1212	4	2	62.333	A
138	Allen Park	1194	5	1	79.167	A
139	Ortonville-Brandon	1190	4	2	61.167	A
140	Holly	1173	4	2	62.500	A
145	Grand Rapids Northview	1152	4	2	60.167	A
146	Mattawan	1147	5	1	75.167	A
147	Marquette	1131	5	1	65.833	A

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AuldSchool

Division 3

#3

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Posts: 1655

10/03/11 7:55 PM

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EnrRank	Division III	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
148	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	1130	4	2	66.833	A
151	East Lansing	1103	5	1	76.500	A
152	Gibraltar Carlson	1103	4	2	62.333	A
153	Holland	1100	5	1	80.500	A
156	Auburn Hills Avondale	1093	4	2	62.167	A
158	Redford Thurston	1080	5	1	81.833	A
159	Lapeer West	1077	4	2	74.333	A
161	Zeeland East	1070	5	1	70.167	A
164	Mt Pleasant	1063	6	0	93.333	A
165	St Johns	1060	5	1	66.167	A
168	Lapeer East	1053	5	1	80.500	A
174	Detroit Pershing	1007	4	2	65.333	A
177	Bloomfield Hills Lahser	981	4	2	68.833	A
179	Mason	974	5	1	66.367	A
180	Petoskey	972	6	0	88.000	A
186	DeWitt	958	6	0	90.667	A
189	Grand Rapids Christian	951	6	0	105.333	B
191	St Joseph	948	5	1	75.333	B
192	East Grand Rapids	944	4	2	65.333	B
193	Stevensville Lakeshore	941	5	1	83.500	B
194	Adrian	940	4	2	61.167	B
195	Fruitport	939	5	1	71.167	B
197	Riverview	928	5	1	66.000	B
199	Sturgis	924	4	2	67.500	B
200	Carleton Airport	920	5	1	73.833	B
209	Orchard Lake St Mary's	904	5	1	76.667	B
215	Chelsea	890	5	1	84.667	B
216	Linden	890	4	2	65.000	B
217	Bay City John Glenn	889	4	2	55.533	B
220	Battle Creek Harper Creek	883	6	0	97.333	B
223	Hastings	864	4	2	56.833	B
226	Escanaba	855	4	2	64.324	B

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AuldSchool

Division 4

#4

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Posts: 1656

10/03/11 7:56 PM

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EnrRank	Division IV	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
227	Sparta	850	5	1	73.833	B
228	Detroit Southwestern	842	4	2	54.500	B
233	Plainwell	833	4	2	54.833	B
237	Marysville	811	5	1	76.833	B
238	Spring Lake	807	4	2	54.333	B
239	Vicksburg	807	4	2	59.833	B
247	Edwardsburg	784	5	0	75.733	B
251	Detroit Kettering	769	4	2	57.000	B
253	Croswell-Lexington	755	6	0	84.533	B
255	Zeeland West	741	6	0	84.000	B
257	Goodrich	731	4	2	50.667	B
259	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	723	5	1	73.833	B
261	Hudsonville Unity Christian	717	4	2	57.167	B
262	Marine City	715	6	0	92.000	B
263	Fremont	714	4	2	52.000	B
264	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	712	5	1	71.333	B
266	Otsego	711	5	1	66.167	B
267	St Clair Shores South Lake	711	6	0	80.000	B
268	Comstock Park	706	4	2	52.833	B
269	Detroit Country Day	698	4	2	57.000	B
270	Detroit Crockett	696	5	1	80.500	B
274	Grand Rapids South Christian	685	4	2	64.000	B
277	Battle Creek Pennfield	676	6	0	78.667	B
278	Paw Paw	675	6	0	82.667	B
279	Grosse Ile	674	5	1	66.000	B
282	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	671	6	0	85.867	B
283	Armada	670	4	2	48.833	B
287	Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy	648	6	0	80.000	B
288	Whitehall	643	4	2	53.333	B
289	Detroit Douglass	642	5	1	78.000	B
293	Alma	624	5	1	72.500	B
295	Clinton Township Clintondale	623	4	2	48.833	B

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AuldSchool

Division 5

#5

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1657

10/03/11 7:57 PM

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EnrRank	Division V	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
302	Remus Chippewa Hills	595	4	2	45.500	B
305	Portland	591	6	0	81.867	B
308	Clawson	588	5	1	55.500	B
310	Berrien Springs	584	6	0	75.467	B
312	Menominee	584	5	1	72.524	B
314	Dowagiac	582	5	1	64.500	B
315	Romulus Summit Academy	579	4	2	45.667	B
317	Freeland	576	5	1	70.000	B
319	Ovid-Elsie	570	4	2	56.167	B
324	Almont	563	5	1	70.167	B
327	Grayling	553	6	0	68.000	B
329	Grand Rapids West Catholic	537	4	2	66.833	B
330	Benzie Central	536	5	1	54.667	B
332	Lake Fenton	535	4	2	49.167	B
335	Capac	531	4	2	50.833	B
338	Stanton Central Montcalm	530	4	2	46.667	B
344	Frankenmuth	517	4	2	53.500	B
345	Manistee	511	4	2	57.500	B
347	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	506	5	1	70.167	B
348	Houghton Lake	504	4	2	45.500	B
349	Carrollton	500	6	0	62.667	B
354	Olivet	494	5	1	54.167	B
355	Dundee	493	5	1	54.167	B
357	Millington	492	6	0	81.333	B
364	Jackson Lumen Christi	477	4	2	54.500	B
365	Lansing Catholic	477	6	0	76.533	B
366	Reed City	475	6	0	81.333	B
370	Hemlock	471	5	1	72.667	B
372	Muskegon Oakridge	466	5	1	61.033	B
376	River Rouge	459	5	1	58.000	C
378	Vassar	451	5	1	51.333	C
380	Tawas Area	448	5	1	43.000	C

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AuldSchool

Division 6

#6

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1658

10/03/11 7:58 PM

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EnrRank	Division VI	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
382	Negaunee	444	5	1	50.167	C
383	Madison Heights Madison	443	4	2	53.667	C
384	Kalkaska	437	4	2	35.000	C
386	Montrose Hill-McCloy	434	6	0	77.333	C
388	Leslie	432	5	1	63.167	C
391	Clare	428	5	1	59.333	C
393	Hanover-Horton	425	5	1	54.000	C
395	Morley Stanwood	423	5	1	58.167	C
397	Laingsburg	422	4	2	41.167	C
398	Ithaca	420	6	0	71.200	C
401	Maple City Glen Lake	418	4	2	38.500	C
402	Hillsdale	417	4	2	58.500	C
404	Shelby	417	6	0	76.000	C
406	Niles Brandywine	412	4	2	38.500	C
407	Ecorse	407	5	1	58.000	C
409	Montague	407	4	2	52.167	C
411	Sanford Meridian	404	5	1	55.167	C
414	Constantine	400	4	2	42.833	C
416	Quincy	399	4	2	36.833	C
418	Grass Lake	395	6	0	73.333	C
420	Manchester	394	5	1	55.500	C
421	East Jackson	392	4	2	41.500	C
426	Calumet	386	4	2	49.714	C
427	Clinton	383	4	2	43.833	C
428	Byron Area	382	6	0	58.667	C
430	Iron Mountain	381	6	0	74.133	C
431	Warren Michigan Collegiate	381	6	0	80.000	C
432	Hartford	380	4	2	40.000	C
434	Grandville Calvin Christian	377	6	0	72.000	C
435	Flint Beecher	375	4	2	55.167	C
438	Schoolcraft	368	5	1	52.833	C
443	Marlette	362	5	1	56.833	C

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AuldSchool

Division 7

#7

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1659

10/03/11 7:59 PM

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EnrRank	Division VII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
445	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	360	4	2	36.500	C
448	McBain	357	5	1	67.500	C
450	Watervliet	354	5	1	43.500	C
452	Sandusky	353	4	2	45.167	C
453	Saranac	353	5	1	47.500	C
456	Reese	351	5	1	60.833	C
457	Burton Bendle	350	5	1	47.500	C
466	Saginaw Nouvel	339	6	0	85.333	C
467	Lake City	336	5	1	50.000	C
468	Whittemore-Prescott	335	5	1	51.500	C
470	Union City	333	6	0	64.000	C
476	Pewamo-Westphalia	319	6	0	64.000	C
477	Springport	318	4	2	41.500	C
478	Ishpeming	316	5	1	54.967	C
479	Lawton	316	5	1	55.500	C
481	Detroit Loyola	312	6	0	73.867	C
482	Mancelona	312	6	0	54.667	C
487	Reading	302	5	1	50.167	C
492	Ravenna	296	4	2	51.667	C
494	Sand Creek	295	5	1	52.667	C
495	Traverse City St Francis	294	5	1	56.833	C
496	Unionville-Sebewaing	294	4	2	35.833	C
498	Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest	291	4	2	34.667	C
500	Lincoln Alcona	287	5	1	42.000	C
503	Gobles	282	6	0	52.000	C
505	Hudson	279	6	0	72.000	C
506	Iron River West Iron County	278	5	1	52.833	C
509	Decatur	275	5	1	51.500	C
511	Royal Oak Shrine Catholic	273	6	0	73.333	C
512	Waterford Our Lady	272	4	2	50.167	C
516	Coleman	267	4	2	42.500	C
517	Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett	267	6	0	49.333	C

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AuldSchool

Division 8

#8

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Posts: 1660

10/03/11 8:00 PM

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EnrRank	Division VIII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
518	Britton Deerfield	263	4	2	39.333	C
520	Blanchard Montabella	262	5	1	53.833	C
522	Harbor Beach	260	6	0	70.667	C
528	Ubly	251	4	2	46.833	C
529	Saugatuck	250	6	0	61.333	C
530	Petersburg-Summerfield	249	4	2	42.167	C
537	Mendon	242	6	0	72.000	C
538	New Lothrop	242	6	0	65.333	C
544	St Ignace La Salle	230	6	0	56.000	C
546	Stephenson	226	4	2	38.648	C
547	Johannesburg-Lewiston	219	5	1	44.833	C
550	Beal City	216	4	2	46.667	C
551	Pickford	215	4	2	36.333	Class D
552	Pittsford	215	5	1	43.067	Class D
553	Bellevue	213	4	2	30.667	Class D
557	Mio	208	4	2	41.333	Class D
562	Deckerville	199	5	1	42.167	Class D
565	Climax-Scotts	198	5	1	51.333	Class D
567	Munising	197	4	2	41.433	Class D
571	Fowler	188	4	2	38.833	Class D
572	Kingston	188	4	2	30.167	Class D
575	Muskegon Catholic Central	184	6	0	82.667	Class D
578	St Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	177	5	1	32.833	Class D
580	Crystal Falls Forest Park	174	4	1	41.390	Class D
583	Colon	166	4	1	36.133	Class D
590	Hillman	156	5	1	45.833	Class D
591	Lake Linden-Hubbell	154	4	2	38.524	Class D
593	Frankfort	152	4	2	47.667	Class D
594	Sterling Heights Parkway Christian	152	4	2	36.667	Class D
598	Iron Mountain North Dickinson	127	4	1	43.495	Class D
599	Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart	127	4	2	45.333	Class D
601	St Joseph Michigan Lutheran	116	4	2	29.500	Class D

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Mr NCAA

#9

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Posts: 9108

10/03/11 8:21 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

I see that you are now done as you edited. See email that I sent you.

Anyways the new and improved Average Division Breakpoints is still the best method before the season begins so far although it isn't as good as last week's projections.

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ftballfan

#10

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All-Area

Posts: 392

10/03/11 8:37 PM

Manistee (4-2) 57.500 (and quite a few more Class B 4-2's with higher POP than this)
Clawson (5-1) 55.000
Benzie Central (5-1) 54.667
All Class B schools.
Does this mean Clawson and Benzie play horrible schedules?

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AuldSchool

Also lucky to be B's

#11

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1661

10/03/11 8:51 PM

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Needed to cut by divisions, so they escaped the fate of higher average A's.

Key for all teams is to get that 6th win, so you don't have to worry.

To be a (5-4) selectee rule of thumb is to play a mixed schedule with larger class, not lower classes.

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Mr NCAA

#12

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Posts: 9109

10/03/11 8:52 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

About the unlucky 13 - there were suppose to be 4 Class D teams, 3 Class C teams, 3 Class B teams, and 3 Class A teams eliminated from the list. This is the way that is prescribed by the MHSAA playoff rules.

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AuldSchool

#13

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Posts: 1663

10/03/11 9:29 PM

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Wellllll…

That would have made Div VIII 16 C, 16 D.

Again keeping the historical projections in mind. Using the Formula I got A=80, B=77, C=79, D=20

What I did see when I went the way I did — after sleeping on it — was that 4 of the 7 breaklines were unchanged from last week. I've never liked how wildly some of the weeks shifted.

And if you are close — WIN SIX!

Others who might have been on Unlucky 13. The lucky 4???

*** Class D ***
Pickford - 36.333
Bellevue - 30.667
Kingston - 30.167
St Jos. MI Lutheran - 29.500

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Mr NCAA

#14

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10/03/11 11:01 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

Well, I am not that close in three divisons, but better than the other two methods. I will write a few comments on the other methods.

AP = average number teams per division
strength - as the number of teams goes down should be more accurate than Average Division Breakpoints as the ADB method will have a high total for D7 ending point and a high D8 starting point.

weakness - should not be able to beat the adjusted ADB since that is adjusted for the number of teams plus D1 will be off as well compared to the other two methods.

Average Division Breakpoints = average the historical numbers regardless of number of teams
strength - when number of teams goes up it beat the AP method easily.

weakness - now that the number of teams is going down, this method will have a high D7 ending point and a high D8 starting point.

Average Division Breakpoints adjusted
strength = adjusted ADB method for the number of teams. When the number of teams goes down this will beat the ADB method in D7 ending and D8 starting by quite a bit such as this year. Even ADB D6 is double figures from the adjusted ADB method.

weakness - can't think of a real weakness unless the projections hold for D5.

Anyways it is the final numbers that count and am anxiously seeing what the final numbers will be.

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Mr NCAA

#15

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Posts: 9126

10/09/11 12:36 AM

MHSAA Football Stats

Some person on mdead posted that Iron Mountain was going to be in D7. Well, I suppose that could happen based on last weeks MHSAA playoff format scenario that I wanted to use (still in D6 by 3 teams by this method) and AuldSchool has them way up there 7 teams or so above the cutoff point. So I don't know where you are getting your information and would be surprised if IM ends up in D7. We'll see what AuldSchool comes up with this week and what method he chooses to use for his projections.

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Green4eva

#16

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All-State

Posts: 338

10/09/11 6:31 AM

B-C-D Mod

What are the chances that Kingsford makes it in at 5-4?

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Mr NCAA

#17

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Posts: 9131

10/09/11 3:32 PM

MHSAA Football Stats

Kingsford has a zero percent chance of making it in as a 5 - 4 team. The alternative is that Kingsford would have to make history.

BTW Iron Mountain beat Warren Michigan Colegiate in the tiebreaker this week in case it comes down to that for a D6 spot.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 10/09/11 3:36 PM. Edited 1 time.

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Playoff Divisions - week 6

Playoff Divisions - week 6