The number of teams that are taken as auto qualifiers this week (5-0, 4-0, 4-1, 3-1) is 191. Down five from last year. Been waiting for a couple of games in review. Right now I'm taking Clawson and Hesperia as winners. Clawson pushes out another B Standish-Sterling, and moves Portland down 1 slot. Clawson becomes the biggest team in 5. (With a loss to Center Line, Clawson would not have been included as a 3-2).
Which brings us to our 65 (3-2) teams. Referred to as the Formula, a few years NumberCrunch reviewed the probabilities for teams with x losses. For 0 losses at week five a team is 98.9% probability to get in. We have 65 teams that are undefeated (5-0, 4-0), so 64 are predicted to get in.
Since I had extra time I pulled out last years week 5 database & week 9 (actual qualifiers). There were 73 undefeateds, and the Formula would say 72 should make it. The unlucky team last year Byron Area (5-0) lost the next four and was not selected. (Also Det Douglass forfeited 7 games, so actually 71 made it.)
Formula says 1 loss teams will have 87.0% success rate in getting in, 2 loss 48%, and 3 loss 7%.
All this applied to this year's teams, applied by class predict that in the end we will need 13 at large teams as 243 qualify with 6 wins. A teams = 76, B=74, C=75, D=18. Add 13 at large 4-3-3-3. We get totals of 80-77-78-21.
Back to 191. We need 65 teams split. Using 20-18-16-11 gives us 80-77-78-21 just like the formula.
More on this later… if you want. If I had used the Formula in this way last year I would have been spot on in D8, which was the major bone of contention last year.
Okay, Have at it. Snooze's maps should be along soon. Go ahead and use this, just refer the questions back here if you can. At least get the name right.
Missed Detroit Country Day. Has been placed in Div 4.
