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Playoff Divisions - week 3

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AuldSchool

Playoff Divisions - week 3

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Posts: 1507

09/12/11 11:33 PM

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Gadzooks is it here already?

And what took so long?

Took two tries things looked so strange on the first run through. Sorry class D. Just don't see how it is mathematically feasible to get 22 D's, so reduced and added more A's, B's, & C's. Things look pretty good — meaning near normal — thru the first 6. Seven & Eight are going to be a challenge all year.

This is what the Play-off Divisions would look like if they were announced tonight. Unless something looked to silly (mathematically) in which case I changed it. Because here I am Roger Goodell.

Answers to other anticipated questions.

Loy Norrix & Temperence Bedford got in on strength of schedule. 7 other A teams didn't who had 53.667 average.

No all the ramifications of forfeits not calculated. I expect some averages to change. The teams probably won't. Unless they were in the group of 9 teams immediately above. I haven't looked.

Hudsonville Unity Christian loses the arm-wrestling contest with Essexville-Garber.

Schoolcraft sits on top of the list of waiting to get in for Class C.

If your Class D team had under 25.000 you were arbitrarily left off. Right now there are 19 D teams with one loss. History (NumberCrunch's research which has held up pretty well says that only 57% will make the play-offs. Which would figure to be 11. You've got 4 teams with 0 losses, that brings you to 15. I took 18 class D teams. Get Six!!!

Have been doing this since there were play-offs.

Questions encouraged. Will respond to 'what ifs' about particular teams.

AuldSchool

Last Edited By: AuldSchool 09/13/11 12:01 AM. Edited 1 time.

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AuldSchool

#1

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09/12/11 11:33 PM

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EnrRank	Division I	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
1	Utica Eisenhower	2825	3	0	85.333	A
4	Howell	2741	2	1	56.667	A
5	East Kentwood	2673	2	1	56.333	A
6	Rockford	2587	2	1	62.000	A
7	Grand Blanc	2563	2	1	62.000	A
8	Lake Orion	2516	2	1	59.000	A
9	Macomb Dakota	2507	2	1	56.667	A
12	Holland West Ottawa	2260	3	0	74.667	A
13	Troy	2233	2	1	58.667	A
14	Northville	2229	3	0	82.667	A
15	Monroe	2196	3	0	77.333	A
16	Canton	2127	3	0	93.333	A
17	Brighton	2118	3	0	85.333	A
18	Detroit Cass Tech	2114	2	1	56.667	A
20	Plymouth	2088	3	0	77.333	A
23	Detroit Catholic Central	2046	3	0	74.667	A
24	Westland John Glenn	2036	2	1	62.000	A
26	Livonia Churchill	1932	2	1	56.333	A
28	Troy Athens	1922	2	1	62.000	A
30	West Bloomfield	1909	2	1	59.000	A
37	Grand Haven	1836	2	1	61.667	A
40	Walled Lake Central	1823	2	1	59.333	A
42	Roseville	1810	3	0	82.667	A
43	Saline	1806	2	1	62.000	A
44	Warren Cousino	1792	2	1	59.333	A
48	Dearborn	1753	3	0	90.667	A
55	Ann Arbor Skyline	1683	2	1	59.000	A
57	White Lake Lakeland	1663	2	1	59.333	A
58	Temperance Bedford	1656	2	1	53.667	A
60	Grand Ledge	1650	3	0	80.000	A
65	Midland	1598	2	1	59.333	A
67	Warren DeLaSalle	1594	3	0	88.000	A

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AuldSchool

#2

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1509

09/12/11 11:38 PM

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EnrRank	Division II	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
68	Grosse Pointe South	1593	3	0	88.000	A
71	Rochester Adams	1560	2	1	59.333	A
74	Ypsilanti Lincoln	1530	2	1	56.333	A
75	Southgate Anderson	1519	3	0	80.000	A
76	Walled Lake Western	1515	3	0	88.000	A
77	Port Huron	1493	3	0	88.000	A
79	Oxford	1482	2	1	59.000	A
90	Flushing	1427	2	1	56.000	A
92	Garden City	1412	3	0	82.667	A
96	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	1392	2	1	53.667	A
98	Farmington	1384	2	1	61.667	A
100	Okemos	1371	3	0	85.333	A
101	Detroit Martin Luther King	1370	2	1	54.000	A
103	Birmingham Brother Rice	1366	3	0	90.667	A
104	Southfield	1364	2	1	59.333	A
105	Detroit Henry Ford	1362	2	0	82.667	A
113	Birmingham Groves	1335	2	1	59.333	A
116	Birmingham Seaholm	1297	2	1	56.667	A
119	Wyandotte Roosevelt	1289	3	0	82.667	A
123	Portage Northern	1276	2	1	59.000	A
124	Muskegon	1273	3	0	86.667	A
125	Farmington Hills Harrison	1261	3	0	93.333	A
127	Swartz Creek	1244	2	1	56.000	A
128	South Lyon	1230	2	1	56.333	A
129	Lowell	1227	3	0	90.667	A
131	Bay City Western	1224	3	0	80.000	A
134	Fenton	1212	3	0	80.000	A
138	Allen Park	1194	3	0	82.667	A
145	Grand Rapids Northview	1152	3	0	82.667	A
147	Marquette	1131	3	0	72.000	A
151	East Lansing	1103	3	0	80.000	A
153	Holland	1100	3	0	82.667	A

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AuldSchool

#3

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1510

09/12/11 11:39 PM

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EnrRank	Division III	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
156	Auburn Hills Avondale	1093	3	0	80.000	A
158	Redford Thurston	1080	2	1	56.667	A
159	Lapeer West	1077	2	1	59.333	A
161	Zeeland East	1070	2	1	56.667	A
164	Mt Pleasant	1063	3	0	88.000	A
165	St Johns	1060	3	0	66.667	A
168	Lapeer East	1053	3	0	82.667	A
174	Detroit Pershing	1007	2	1	62.000	A
176	Cedar Springs	983	3	0	74.667	A
177	Bloomfield Hills Lahser	981	3	0	85.333	A
180	Petoskey	972	3	0	69.333	A
182	St Clair	965	3	0	80.000	A
186	DeWitt	958	3	0	77.333	A
187	Trenton	954	2	1	59.333	A
189	Grand Rapids Christian	951	3	0	85.333	B
191	St Joseph	948	3	0	77.333	B
192	East Grand Rapids	944	2	1	54.000	B
193	Stevensville Lakeshore	941	2	1	62.000	B
194	Adrian	940	2	1	53.667	B
195	Fruitport	939	3	0	74.667	B
197	Riverview	928	2	1	51.000	B
200	Carleton Airport	920	2	1	48.333	B
204	Detroit Cesar Chavez Academy	914	2	1	46.000	B
209	Orchard Lake St Mary's	904	2	1	48.500	B
215	Chelsea	890	2	1	62.000	B
217	Bay City John Glenn	889	2	1	50.667	B
220	Battle Creek Harper Creek	883	3	0	77.333	B
223	Hastings	864	2	1	45.333	B
226	Escanaba	855	2	1	51.167	B
227	Sparta	850	3	0	74.667	B
228	Detroit Southwestern	842	3	0	74.667	B
229	New Boston Huron	841	2	1	45.333	B

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AuldSchool

#4

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1511

09/12/11 11:40 PM

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EnrRank	Division IV	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
233	Plainwell	833	2	1	43.333	B
237	Marysville	811	2	1	56.667	B
239	Vicksburg	807	3	0	74.667	B
242	Ogemaw Heights	799	2	1	46.000	B
245	Allegan	788	2	1	43.333	B
247	Edwardsburg	784	2	0	64.000	B
248	North Branch	780	3	0	64.000	B
253	Croswell-Lexington	755	3	0	76.000	B
255	Zeeland West	741	3	0	85.333	B
259	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	723	2	1	48.333	B
262	Marine City	715	3	0	72.000	B
263	Fremont	714	2	1	46.000	B
264	Dearborn Heights Robichaud	712	3	0	80.000	B
266	Otsego	711	2	1	51.333	B
267	St Clair Shores South Lake	711	3	0	64.000	B
268	Comstock Park	706	3	0	61.333	B
270	Detroit Crockett	696	2	1	61.667	B
273	Yale	690	2	1	48.667	B
274	Grand Rapids South Christian	685	2	1	59.333	B
277	Battle Creek Pennfield	676	3	0	56.000	B
278	Paw Paw	675	3	0	82.667	B
279	Grosse Ile	674	3	0	61.333	B
282	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	671	3	0	85.333	B
283	Armada	670	3	0	66.667	B
287	Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy	648	3	0	72.000	B
288	Whitehall	643	2	1	46.000	B
289	Detroit Douglass	642	3	0	78.667	B
290	Saginaw	641	2	1	56.333	B
293	Alma	624	3	0	72.000	B
295	Clinton Township Clintondale	623	3	0	72.000	B
299	Essexville Garber	603	2	1	43.000	B
305	Portland	591	3	0	77.333	B

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AuldSchool

#5

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1512

09/12/11 11:41 PM

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EnrRank	Division V	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
308	Clawson	588	3	0	58.667	B
310	Berrien Springs	584	3	0	53.333	B
312	Menominee	584	2	1	49.167	B
314	Dowagiac	582	2	1	43.333	B
317	Freeland	576	2	1	46.000	B
319	Ovid-Elsie	570	2	1	48.667	B
322	Kingsford	568	2	1	48.667	B
324	Almont	563	3	0	69.333	B
327	Grayling	553	3	0	66.667	B
329	Grand Rapids West Catholic	537	2	1	53.667	B
332	Lake Fenton	535	2	1	45.667	B
338	Stanton Central Montcalm	530	3	0	66.667	B
340	Ida	525	3	0	56.000	B
344	Frankenmuth	517	2	1	43.333	B
345	Manistee	511	2	1	48.667	B
349	Carrollton	500	3	0	58.667	B
351	Parchment	499	3	0	53.333	B
353	Brooklyn Columbia Central	497	2	1	43.333	B
354	Olivet	494	3	0	50.667	B
355	Dundee	493	3	0	58.667	B
357	Millington	492	3	0	66.667	B
363	Buchanan	478	2	0	64.000	B
364	Jackson Lumen Christi	477	2	1	53.667	B
365	Lansing Catholic	477	3	0	66.667	B
366	Reed City	475	3	0	58.667	B
370	Hemlock	471	3	0	77.333	B
372	Muskegon Oakridge	466	3	0	66.667	B
375	Mt Clemens	460	2	1	37.333	C
376	River Rouge	459	2	1	40.333	C
377	Delton Kellogg	455	2	1	35.333	C
378	Vassar	451	3	0	48.000	C
380	Tawas Area	448	3	0	53.333	C

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AuldSchool

#6

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1513

09/12/11 11:42 PM

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EnrRank	Division VI	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
382	Negaunee	444	3	0	64.000	C
384	Kalkaska	437	2	1	34.667	C
386	Montrose Hill-McCloy	434	3	0	69.333	C
388	Leslie	432	3	0	61.333	C
390	Detroit PEC	430	2	1	40.667	C
391	Clare	428	2	1	43.000	C
393	Hanover-Horton	425	3	0	53.333	C
394	Michigan Center	424	2	1	43.333	C
395	Morley Stanwood	423	3	0	56.000	C
398	Ithaca	420	3	0	68.000	C
401	Maple City Glen Lake	418	3	0	53.333	C
404	Shelby	417	3	0	72.000	C
406	Niles Brandywine	412	3	0	45.333	C
407	Ecorse	407	2	1	38.000	C
409	Montague	407	2	1	43.333	C
411	Sanford Meridian	404	3	0	61.333	C
416	Quincy	399	2	1	35.000	C
418	Grass Lake	395	3	0	64.000	C
420	Manchester	394	3	0	50.667	C
421	East Jackson	392	2	1	40.667	C
427	Calumet	386	2	1	43.667	C
429	Byron Area	382	3	0	53.333	C
431	Iron Mountain	381	3	0	58.667	C
432	Warren Michigan Collegiate	381	3	0	69.333	C
433	Hartford	380	3	0	48.000	C
435	Grandville Calvin Christian	377	3	0	66.667	C
436	Flint Beecher	375	2	1	50.667	C
444	Marlette	362	3	0	58.667	C
449	McBain	357	3	0	64.000	C
450	St Louis	357	2	1	35.333	C
451	Watervliet	354	2	1	43.333	C
453	Saranac	353	3	0	42.667	C

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AuldSchool

#7

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1514

09/12/11 11:43 PM

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EnrRank	Division VII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
454	Sandusky	353	2	1	35.000	C
456	Ishpeming Westwood	351	2	0	48.000	C
457	Reese	351	2	1	40.667	C
458	Burton Bendle	350	2	1	35.333	C
460	Hart	347	2	1	37.667	C
464	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	343	2	1	43.333	C
467	Saginaw Nouvel	339	3	0	45.333	C
468	Lake City	336	3	0	48.000	C
469	Whittemore-Prescott	335	3	0	48.000	C
471	Union City	333	3	0	56.000	C
474	Memphis	326	2	1	35.333	C
477	Pewamo-Westphalia	319	3	0	48.000	C
478	Springport	318	3	0	50.667	C
479	Ishpeming	316	2	1	40.667	C
480	Lawton	316	2	1	38.000	C
482	Detroit Loyola	312	2	1	43.000	C
483	Mancelona	312	3	0	40.000	C
489	Brown City	301	3	0	40.000	C
493	Ravenna	296	2	1	37.667	C
495	Sand Creek	295	2	1	38.000	C
496	Traverse City St Francis	294	2	1	43.333	C
498	Dansville	291	2	1	37.333	C
501	Lincoln Alcona	287	3	0	42.667	C
503	Genesee	282	2	1	34.667	C
504	Gobles	282	3	0	50.667	C
506	Hudson	279	3	0	56.000	C
509	Decatur	275	2	1	35.333	C
511	Royal Oak Shrine Catholic	273	3	0	66.667	C
512	Waterford Our Lady	272	2	1	43.000	C
516	Coleman	267	2	1	35.333	C
518	Britton Deerfield	263	2	1	37.333	C
520	Blanchard Montabella	262	3	0	53.333	C

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AuldSchool

#8

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1515

09/12/11 11:46 PM

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EnrRank	Division VIII	Enrolled	Wins	Losses	Average	Class
521	Ironwood Luther L Wright	262	2	1	32.750	C
522	Harbor Beach	260	3	0	48.000	C
523	Merrill	256	2	1	46.000	C
527	Melvindale Academy for Business & Tech	251	2	1	35.000	C
528	Ubly	251	2	1	43.333	C
529	Saugatuck	250	3	0	58.667	C
530	Petersburg-Summerfield	249	2	1	40.000	C
537	Mendon	242	3	0	53.333	C
538	New Lothrop	242	3	0	56.000	C
542	Bessemer	235	2	1	35.167	C
544	St Ignace La Salle	230	3	0	53.333	C
545	North Adams-Jerome	229	3	0	34.667	C
546	Stephenson	226	2	1	37.833	C
547	Johannesburg-Lewiston	219	3	0	48.000	C
552	Pittsford	215	2	1	31.333	Class D
553	Bellevue	213	2	1	26.000	Class D
555	Fulton	213	2	1	35.000	Class D
557	Mio	208	2	1	35.333	Class D
563	Morenci	199	2	1	35.333	Class D
565	Climax-Scotts	198	3	0	42.667	Class D
567	Munising	197	2	1	29.833	Class D
568	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	197	2	1	34.667	Class D
569	Webberville	190	2	1	35.000	Class D
575	Muskegon Catholic Central	184	3	0	66.667	Class D
576	Hale	183	2	1	32.333	Class D
580	Crystal Falls Forest Park	174	2	1	27.417	Class D
584	Ontonagon	166	2	1	32.333	Class D
590	Hillman	156	3	0	37.333	Class D
598	Iron Mountain North Dickinson	127	2	0	39.333	Class D
601	St Joseph Michigan Lutheran	116	2	1	29.333	Class D
605	Arenac Eastern	95	2	1	32.333	Class D
606	Detroit Westside Christian	69	2	1	35.000	Class D

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Mr NCAA

#9

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All-Searn Hall of Fame

Posts: 9018

09/13/11 12:08 AM

MHSAA Football Stats

History (NumberCrunch's research which has held up pretty well says that only 57% will make the play-offs. Which would figure to be 11.
Do you apply NumberCrunch's formula for Class A, B, and C as well? If not, there should be an adjustment made.

Last year it was projected to be 11 Class C teams in D8 at this time and it turned out to be 7. 14 Class C teams in D8 seems to be a reach with only a 10 team difference (not counting those forfeit teams this year). I guess that I will have to wait on week 6 to sort things out better since that will be straightforward and won't have the problem of cutting teams off the list.

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 09/13/11 12:16 AM. Edited 4 times.

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ChuckSlick

#10

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Sophomore

Posts: 19

09/13/11 12:40 AM

Couldn't help but notice Au Gres Sims isn't on the list of Div8 schools. Did they phone in the season?

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Green4eva

Hoo-Boy...

#11

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All-State

Posts: 139

09/13/11 12:42 AM

B-C-D Mod

Going to be an interesting season watching these teams/numbers fluctuate up and down. I am preparing myself for the bubble team that is Muskegon Oakridge this year, but had totally forgotten that Hemlock is above Oakridge SEN wise. Very interesting. Ty for taking the time to do this....and this goes to Snooze and Mr. NCAA as well.

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ChuckSlick

#12

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Sophomore

Posts: 20

09/13/11 12:43 AM

Or Bay City All Saints. Something wrong with your projection AuldSchool.

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AuldSchool

#13

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1516

09/13/11 12:46 AM

Forum Donor

AuGres-Sims is currently 1-2.

Three teams with winning records still on their schedule, three with losing.

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ChuckSlick

#14

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Sophomore

Posts: 21

09/13/11 12:48 AM

Peck, North Huron, Kingston and Deckerville are also missing. Auld, you had a brain fart!

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ChuckSlick

#15

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Sophomore

Posts: 22

09/13/11 12:53 AM

Oops, I didn't read the title right. I thought you were stating teams in Divisions according to enrollment. Not according to win/loss record. My humble apologize. To myself...idiot.

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AuldSchool

#16

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Posts: 1517

09/13/11 12:57 AM

Forum Donor

ChuckSlick wrote:
Or Bay City All Saints. Something wrong with your projection AuldSchool.

Saints need to get on the stick. At 0-3 history says they have a 00.8% chance of making the play-offs.

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AuldSchool

#17

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All-Searn 1st Team

Posts: 1518

09/13/11 1:02 AM

Forum Donor

ChuckSlick wrote:
Peck, North Huron, Kingston and Deckerville are also missing. Auld, you had a brain fart!

Glad we got that sorted before I went looking at the Deckerville schedule.

Right now they would be the next one on the D list of teams. That was anticipated question #5.

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ChuckSlick

#18

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Sophomore

Posts: 23

09/13/11 1:04 AM

Harbor Beach or Ubly bring a lot to the Div8 table. Very strong conference. The Greater Thumb East should finish 20-4 at least in non-division regular season games. I can easily see either one at Ford Field vs MCC or Mendon.

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Mr NCAA

#19

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All-Searn Hall of Fame

Posts: 9020

09/13/11 1:19 AM

MHSAA Football Stats

Personally I think that Harbor Beach won't end up in D8. Those two Class D teams forfeiting their seasons will take their toll as the season goes on and make more Class D teams making the playoffs.

Ubly was at the top on my "no man's land" so I wouldn't be surprised if they wind up in D7 or D8.

AuldSchool should be using his 2007 projection method as that year has been the best for week 3 at least for D8. D5 was perfect that particular year in regards to having X amount of Class C teams in it with D3 being only 2 off for Class A.

Here is the 2007 link and says that AuldSchool took all the 2 - 1 Class D teams that year:
http://searnfootballforum.yuku.com/topic/3300/Playoff-Division-Breakdown-Week-Three-C-O-R-R-E-C-T-E-D

So using the 2007 method there would be 5 more Class D teams in D8 and eliminate the worse two for both Class B and C teams and one for Class A. (19 + 4 = 23 - 18 = 5 difference)

Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 09/13/11 1:33 AM. Edited 4 times.

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AuldSchool

#20

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Posts: 1520

09/13/11 1:33 AM

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A has two divisions with class B EGR (by about a dozen students under A) holding on to Div III.
B has IV & V as well
C VI & VII - has a C team won d5?
D has VIII but their numbers are shrinking. And the 57 includes Covert & Plymouth Christian.

Should 30 teams be shifted out of A? Should all 4 classes have about 150 teams? Which means play-off points for beating Zeeland East would be 64, not 80? Pretty much Div I & II A
Div III & Iv for B (cut-off at around 600 students)
Div V & VI would be C (about 350 to 600)
Div VII & VIII would be D

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Playoff Divisions - week 3

Playoff Divisions - week 3