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I forgot about NL being in between the two divisions for this fall so my comment should have read 505 or so above. Based on how the AP did the divisions a few years ago by averaging the amount of teams per division with 40 8 man football teams, here is the ending points for each divison:

D1 = 72
D2 = 144
D3 = 216
D4 = 284
D5 = 360
D6 = 432
D7 = 504
D8 starts = 506 = projection

We know from previous experience that D1 will be less than that.

Based on having around 2 teams per division being effected plus around 40% of the teams making the playoffs currently, here is my tentative projections for next year based on having 40 8 man football teams (I moved down 5 teams per division down lower):
D1 = 58
D2 = 147
D3 = 217
D4 = 281
D5 = 354
D6 = 426
D7 = 507
D8 starts = 510

This isn't official since I didn't really look at past 5 - 4 numbers, but using my method as stated above.

I forgot that the mdead SEC person said next year about Chelsea being in D4 when making my comments on there, but it seems to me that they would have to go down some more in the SEN number wise to move down right now to have a better than a 50/50 shot at D4 for next year right now under this scenario. Obviously with Chelsea being team #211 currently they will become a borderline D3/D4 team next year it looks like. Is Chelsea projected to go down some more since they fell fast from the 1000+ SEN number fast? So I wouldn't call Chelsea a lock for D3 or D4 right now under any scenario since it looks to be a close call provided that we have 40 8 man football teams next year.