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 statman24 |
Week #3 - Upsets |
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I don't always have the time to analyse all of the state scores... but if someone can (from week to week) post the upsets of the week (which I understand
in advance is somewhat subjective)... I'd greatly appreciate it.
Obviously, Romeo over Dakota is on that list. |
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MHSFW |
#1 | |||
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Sophomore
Posts: 37 09/13/08 9:04 PM MAC Moderator
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I am not sure this was a total upset....Dakota has looked very average this season, and playing a team that has looked froward to this game since the MAC
re-alignment, and an emotional game due to the tragic events at Romeo this week. I was not that surprised
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Mr NCAA |
#2 | |||
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Tom Markowski (plus I do believe Mick McCabe does one as well) puts out a "how the top teams fared" weekly link. Basically this lists his top 25
teams, who won, who lost, and the score of the game.
http://www.detnews.com/ap...3/SPORTS05/809130332/1049 |
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MichiganElite |
#3 | |||
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Sophomore
Posts: 63 09/13/08 10:02 PM |
You can call them upsets or you can just say you were surprised at the outcome. However you want to word it, it was interesting to see these results:
Saline over Chelsea Northville over South Lyon Romulus over Highland Park Hudsonville Unity Christian over Zeeland West Romeo over Dakota You could probably throw Howell over Milford, Edsel Ford over Melvindale, Carman-Ainsworth over Powers, Portage Central over JLC, Stoney Creek over Seaholm, St. Johns over Sexton, and Canton over Plymouth in there for interesting outcomes. Not necessarily "upsets" but interesting nonetheless. |
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Mr NCAA |
#4 | |||
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The biggest upset of the week has to be an Ontario team beating a MHSAA school. It broke a long, long winning streak for the MHSAA schools. Same team has to
play another Ontario school next week so it could happen twice in one year.
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 completehomer |
#5 | |||
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Junior
Posts: 88 09/14/08 9:02 AM |
Muskegon Catholic Central over Country Day. I know MCC is very good, but I consider this an upset due to the size and recent success of DCD.
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BiasedGuy |
#6 | |||
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All-Searn 1st Team
Posts: 1644 09/14/08 10:13 AM Forum Donor |
MrNCAA, I dunno about that ONT win over a MI school being an upset even though you stated there is a long history of MHSAA wins over Canadian schools, but.....
I believe you are talking about the Sault Ste Marie White Pines win over Brimley? At least that is the game that jumped out at me from the MHSAAA website. Sault Ste Mare ONT is roughly 30 times larger than Brimley, with about 75000 inhabitants. I am familar with Brimley having camped near there, and even know folks there. But even I was surprised to see Brimley HS listed as only having 141 students. I could not quickly locate the same figure for White Pines HS. Based on the assuemd population disparity, between the two schools, do you still feel this was a big upset? Personally I don't. |
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prepseer |
Upsets of the Week | #7 | ||
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If you follow my weekly picks, you'll know that I always make three upset picks. I often get one of the three right--sometimes two. But, last week was
the first time in several years that I got all three picks right. Romeo over Dakota, Southfield over Harrison, Davison over Flushing. I realize the last one
might not be considered an upset by some, but it was an 0-2 team over a good and ranked 2-0 team.
There were some more that I missed. Muskegon CC over Detroit Country Day at home was a surprise to me. St. Johns over Sexton was a surprise. Also, Saline over Chelsea. All three winning teams are good teams, but I'm still surprised they beat ranked teams. |
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BiasedGuy |
#8 | |||
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All-Searn 1st Team
Posts: 1646 09/14/08 10:23 AM Forum Donor |
It's already a topsy turvy season, Prep.
How was the drive back? Rained like a beast, I'll bet. |
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Searn |
#9 | |||
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All-Searn Hall of Fame
Posts: 5546 09/14/08 10:25 AM Board Owner |
Nice picks on Romeo and Southfield ... I agree Davison probably wasn't an upset.
Harrison I was not that surprised ... but the Dakota upset was surprising to me (especially with what the score turned out to be) At least 99 times out of 100 I would say a Canadian team beating a Michigan team would be an upset. I have no clue if this one applies as I don't know much about the teams involved.
"Crank Me Up!"
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BiasedGuy |
#10 | |||
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All-Searn 1st Team
Posts: 1648 09/14/08 10:33 AM Forum Donor |
Searn wrote:How about statistical probability based upon a much larger school likely to have more athletes? You have stated words to the effect 'any school with over 1000 students should be able to win...." (feel free to correct my butcher job on your quote) I take it from your statement that you agree with the same idea I posed; the statistical likliehood that more students = more athletes. Besides, he rules aren't that much different to account for this particular ONT team winning being an upset. |
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Mr NCAA |
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Go to John's website and you'll find out that Brimley contributed to the MHSAA winning during 2004 and 2005. So if they can contribute during those
years for the winning streak, then it has to be a major upset to get defeated by an Ontario team this year. Otherwise you'll be playing with the stats.
That's my standard whether people like it or not. Plus Brimley was 3 - 0 all time since 1955 vs. the Ontario schools.
Davison over Flushing. I realize the last one might not be considered an upset by some, but it was an 0-2 team over a good and ranked 2-0 teamJust curious, who or what computer poll had Flushing rated that highly besides you?.
Last Edited By: Mr NCAA 09/14/08 10:45 AM.
Edited 2 times.
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BiasedGuy |
#12 | |||
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All-Searn 1st Team
Posts: 1649 09/14/08 11:01 AM Forum Donor |
I'm not using stats to 'play' MrNCAA. Statisitcal trends are naturally ocurring phenomena. I can't quantify the inputs in this particular case,
but I can make some inferences. Canadian HS FB has grown more familiar with American FB. Brimley may or may not be declining in population over time. The
Canadian Soo's may be increasing. But as far as stats go, 4 games dating back to 1955 is tough to draw a game outcome from. Conversely the likliehood of
athletes being part of a normal distribution of a student population is not too far fetcehd to draw an inference from esp if one school is many many times
larger than the other. Plus, from such a small school as Brimley, the odds that the graduation of a single (or two) special talent athletes would affect the
team is far more probabl. And that may explain the consecutive 04 and 05 teams. 1955 would not factor into this as being an outlier. For the matter, Brimley
may have had a coaching change.
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prepseer |
#13 | |||
Mr NCAA wrote: I had Flushing in my Honorable Mention group. The AP also had Flushing as HM in Division 2. |
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prepseer |
#14 | |||
BiasedGuy wrote:It rained the whole way back, but it was still a much better drive than returning from Muskegon. |
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AuldSchool |
#15 | |||
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All-Searn H.M.
Posts: 575 09/14/08 4:47 PM Forum Donor
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dictionary.com The former GR City League teams went 5-0 against the OK schools on Friday. (Two CL schools played Sat. - Creston defeated Union). During the years since the City League applied the fans of the suburban schools (mLivers are a good example) have derided the City as being a weaker league. Score 177-41. How many were really upsets - as opposed to just upsetting the perceptions of the noisy. Results (convential wisdom, real upset) GR Christian (2-1) 47-13 Muskegon Mona Shores (0-3) - Not an upset, expected. GR Catholic Central (3-0) 41-7 Forest Hills Eastern (0-3) - Not an upset, expected. (Pre-season some mLivers had CC 6th/7th in OK Gold.) West Catholic (1-2) 49-0 Cedar Springs (0-3) - Not an upset, expected. Ottawa Hills (1-2) 28-15 Hastings (2-1) - Upset, eyebrows raised. GR Central (1-2) 12-6 Forest Hills Northern (0-3) Upset, WHAT 
The last game had to be a shock to all concerned-with the exception of the coaching staffs (maybe)-as I'm sure the dwindling fan bases of both schools will back up. |
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f66939 |
A couple from the Thumb | #16 | ||
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Freshmen
Unranked Walkon 
Posts: 2 09/14/08 7:04 PM |
I know you guys follow the big boys and could care less from small school ball, but there were two major upsets in the Greater Thumb Conference last Friday.
#8 Div6 Reese fell at home to lightly regarded Marlette 21-6 while Div7 Harbor Beach, a semi-finalist last year, suffered a humiliating defeat to Brown City, a team that was out scored 80-15 in their first two games of the season. Both losses still have heads shaking in this part of the state. Damn, it goes to show you never can assume victory looking at a piece of paper or past weeks performances. Love the game! 
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